Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the mid-single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, with support concentrated among younger voters and those disillusioned by both the Workers’ Party and the main right-wing contender. His candidacy, formalized in July after the party’s 2025 registration, faced a late-August TSE suspension over unreported social-media accounts that temporarily halted digital ads and debate access; the court unanimously validated the ticket on September 10, restoring eligibility and public-fund access. Santos has positioned himself as an independent right-wing option, criticizing Flávio Bolsonaro while refusing runoff endorsements and emphasizing fiscal reforms and anti-corruption measures. This backdrop, combined with a crowded field of minor candidates, keeps implied probabilities clustered between 2–6 percent, with traders assigning the highest weight to the 4–6 percent band amid limited movement since the legal resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4-6% 34%
2-4% 24%
8%+ 16%
6-8% 10.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
9%
2-4%
24%
4-6%
34%
6-8%
17%
8%+
16%
4-6% 34%
2-4% 24%
8%+ 16%
6-8% 10.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$289 Обс.
9%
2-4%
$1,064 Обс.
24%
4-6%
$639 Обс.
34%
6-8%
$272 Обс.
17%
8%+
$1,613 Обс.
16%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the mid-single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, with support concentrated among younger voters and those disillusioned by both the Workers’ Party and the main right-wing contender. His candidacy, formalized in July after the party’s 2025 registration, faced a late-August TSE suspension over unreported social-media accounts that temporarily halted digital ads and debate access; the court unanimously validated the ticket on September 10, restoring eligibility and public-fund access. Santos has positioned himself as an independent right-wing option, criticizing Flávio Bolsonaro while refusing runoff endorsements and emphasizing fiscal reforms and anti-corruption measures. This backdrop, combined with a crowded field of minor candidates, keeps implied probabilities clustered between 2–6 percent, with traders assigning the highest weight to the 4–6 percent band amid limited movement since the legal resolution.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,877Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the mid-single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, with support concentrated among younger voters and those disillusioned by both the Workers’ Party and the main right-wing contender. His candidacy, formalized in July after the party’s 2025 registration, faced a late-August TSE suspension over unreported social-media accounts that temporarily halted digital ads and debate access; the court unanimously validated the ticket on September 10, restoring eligibility and public-fund access. Santos has positioned himself as an independent right-wing option, criticizing Flávio Bolsonaro while refusing runoff endorsements and emphasizing fiscal reforms and anti-corruption measures. This backdrop, combined with a crowded field of minor candidates, keeps implied probabilities clustered between 2–6 percent, with traders assigning the highest weight to the 4–6 percent band amid limited movement since the legal resolution.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$3,877Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the mid-single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, with support concentrated among younger voters and those disillusioned by both the Workers’ Party and the main right-wing contender. His candidacy, formalized in July after the party’s 2025 registration, faced a late-August TSE suspension over unreported social-media accounts that temporarily halted digital ads and debate access; the court unanimously validated the ticket on September 10, restoring eligibility and public-fund access. Santos has positioned himself as an independent right-wing option, criticizing Flávio Bolsonaro while refusing runoff endorsements and emphasizing fiscal reforms and anti-corruption measures. This backdrop, combined with a crowded field of minor candidates, keeps implied probabilities clustered between 2–6 percent, with traders assigning the highest weight to the 4–6 percent band amid limited movement since the legal resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
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Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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