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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 70.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,602 Обс.

Fernando Dias da Costa 70.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,602 Обс.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,812 Обс.

51%

Siga Batista

$21,444 Обс.

23%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,583 Обс.

4%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,181 Обс.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,896 Обс.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Обс.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Обс.

2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,358 Обс.

1%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,098 Обс.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,882 Обс.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,237 Обс.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,133 Обс.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 50.3% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, stemming from his commanding 49.4% vote share in the annulled November 2025 contest—edging incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 47.6%—before a military coup destroyed tally sheets and installed transitional leader General Horta Inta-A Na Man. The junta's January decree set the redo date under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, sidelining Embaló (now at 1.4%) amid legitimacy concerns. Independent Siga Batista, who garnered just 0.1% last time, has surged to 23.4% on perceived momentum in a fragmented field lacking formal polls (banned by electoral law). April reports of political violence underscore transition risks, with no major shifts in recent weeks.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Обсяг
$311,602
Дата завершення
Nov 23, 2025
Ринок відкрито
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 50.3% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, stemming from his commanding 49.4% vote share in the annulled November 2025 contest—edging incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 47.6%—before a military coup destroyed tally sheets and installed transitional leader General Horta Inta-A Na Man. The junta's January decree set the redo date under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, sidelining Embaló (now at 1.4%) amid legitimacy concerns. Independent Siga Batista, who garnered just 0.1% last time, has surged to 23.4% on perceived momentum in a fragmented field lacking formal polls (banned by electoral law). April reports of political violence underscore transition risks, with no major shifts in recent weeks.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Обсяг
$311,602
Дата завершення
Nov 23, 2025
Ринок відкрито
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 12 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Fernando Dias da Costa» з 51%, далі «Siga Batista» з 23%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election» згенерував $311.6K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 6, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election», перегляньте 12 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election» — «Fernando Dias da Costa» з 51%. Наступний — «Siga Batista» з 23%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.