Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
26°C 48%
27°C 41%
25°C 5%
28°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
5%
26°C
48%
27°C
41%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C
5%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 48%
27°C 41%
25°C 5%
28°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
$191 Обс.
1%
23°C
$192 Обс.
2%
24°C
$145 Обс.
3%
25°C
$217 Обс.
5%
26°C
$200 Обс.
48%
27°C
$538 Обс.
41%
28°C
$182 Обс.
5%
29°C
$78 Обс.
3%
30°C
$362 Обс.
5%
31°C
$97 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$92 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,293Дата завершення
Sep 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,293Дата завершення
Sep 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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