Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including those aligned with Météo-France guidance, show Paris under westerly flow with partial cloud cover and light drizzle potential on August 31, limiting daytime heating and anchoring the highest temperature near seasonal norms of 23–24°C. This positions 24°C as the market leader at 37.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 23°C, as persistent marine air and modest wind speeds prevent stronger insolation that could push readings to 25°C or higher. Uncertainties in exact cloud fraction and steering patterns create the tight clustering between 23–25°C, with lower odds for extremes reflecting the absence of blocking highs or cold-air advection in current runs. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether any shift in the North Atlantic pattern alters this consensus.