**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops. Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection. Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on August 31?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 31?
70-71°F 43%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 16%
65°F or below 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
15%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
43%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
2%
84°F or higher
2%
70-71°F 43%
72-73°F 36%
68-69°F 16%
65°F or below 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
$6 Обс.
15%
66-67°F
$40 Обс.
5%
68-69°F
$48 Обс.
16%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
43%
72-73°F
$137 Обс.
36%
74-75°F
$0 Обс.
15%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
7%
78-79°F
$0 Обс.
4%
80-81°F
$0 Обс.
2%
82-83°F
$0 Обс.
2%
84°F or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops.
Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection.
Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$231Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops.
Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection.
Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$231Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops. Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection. Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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