Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
27°C or higher 59%
21°C 48%
17°C or below 44%
25°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
44%
18°C
29%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
48%
22°C
26%
23°C
1%
24°C
18%
25°C
39%
26°C
33%
27°C or higher
59%
27°C or higher 59%
21°C 48%
17°C or below 44%
25°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Обс.
44%
18°C
$0 Обс.
29%
19°C
$0 Обс.
28%
20°C
$0 Обс.
26%
21°C
$0 Обс.
48%
22°C
$0 Обс.
26%
23°C
$220 Обс.
1%
24°C
$0 Обс.
18%
25°C
$0 Обс.
39%
26°C
$0 Обс.
33%
27°C or higher
$0 Обс.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$220Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$220Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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