Incoming frontal systems and increased cloud cover are the main drivers capping Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 29 near 20–21 °C, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Official guidance from IMGW and ensemble runs (GFS/ECMWF) show a shift from high pressure to a weakening ridge, allowing Atlantic moisture and southwesterly flow to bring widespread stratiform rain and reduced insolation during peak heating hours. This setup limits surface warming despite seasonal norms near 23 °C, with dew points rising and boundary-layer mixing suppressed. Model spread remains modest, keeping the 19–22 °C cluster dominant while lower and higher tails stay under 4 % probability. Updated short-range guidance expected before resolution will refine exact timing of any clearing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
20°C 33%
21°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
8%
19°C
18%
20°C
23%
21°C
26%
22°C
17%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 33%
21°C 26%
19°C 18%
22°C 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
$21 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$17 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$5 Обс.
2%
18°C
$29 Обс.
8%
19°C
$50 Обс.
18%
20°C
$34 Обс.
23%
21°C
$63 Обс.
26%
22°C
$107 Обс.
17%
23°C
$11 Обс.
3%
24°C
$0 Обс.
3%
25°C or higher
$18 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming frontal systems and increased cloud cover are the main drivers capping Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 29 near 20–21 °C, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Official guidance from IMGW and ensemble runs (GFS/ECMWF) show a shift from high pressure to a weakening ridge, allowing Atlantic moisture and southwesterly flow to bring widespread stratiform rain and reduced insolation during peak heating hours. This setup limits surface warming despite seasonal norms near 23 °C, with dew points rising and boundary-layer mixing suppressed. Model spread remains modest, keeping the 19–22 °C cluster dominant while lower and higher tails stay under 4 % probability. Updated short-range guidance expected before resolution will refine exact timing of any clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$355Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming frontal systems and increased cloud cover are the main drivers capping Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 29 near 20–21 °C, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Official guidance from IMGW and ensemble runs (GFS/ECMWF) show a shift from high pressure to a weakening ridge, allowing Atlantic moisture and southwesterly flow to bring widespread stratiform rain and reduced insolation during peak heating hours. This setup limits surface warming despite seasonal norms near 23 °C, with dew points rising and boundary-layer mixing suppressed. Model spread remains modest, keeping the 19–22 °C cluster dominant while lower and higher tails stay under 4 % probability. Updated short-range guidance expected before resolution will refine exact timing of any clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$355Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incoming frontal systems and increased cloud cover are the main drivers capping Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 29 near 20–21 °C, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Official guidance from IMGW and ensemble runs (GFS/ECMWF) show a shift from high pressure to a weakening ridge, allowing Atlantic moisture and southwesterly flow to bring widespread stratiform rain and reduced insolation during peak heating hours. This setup limits surface warming despite seasonal norms near 23 °C, with dew points rising and boundary-layer mixing suppressed. Model spread remains modest, keeping the 19–22 °C cluster dominant while lower and higher tails stay under 4 % probability. Updated short-range guidance expected before resolution will refine exact timing of any clearing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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