**Trader sentiment on Polymarket for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits (Aug 10–16) favors lower volumes, with <180 ships at 43.5% implied probability and 180–199 at 32%.** Persistent Houthi threats in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden continue to suppress traffic through this critical chokepoint linking Europe/Asia routes. U.S. Maritime Administration advisories highlight elevated risks of missile, drone, and boarding attacks for vessels linked to certain flags or ports, prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or reduce AIS usage, directly cutting transit counts. Recent July data from Kpler and Clarksons showed daily commodity ship passages fluctuating sharply—peaking at 37–39 on select days but averaging as low as 31 per day or dropping 34–50% amid embargo threats and attacks, well below pre-2024 norms. A Houthi denial of new transit fees on August 1 provided minor relief but did not alter routing incentives or insurance premiums. With no resolution to the underlying conflict and ongoing moderate threat assessments, markets price in sustained suppression for the resolution week, consistent with aggregate trader positioning backed by real capital. Upcoming data releases from IMF Portwatch will determine final resolution.