Recent elevated tornado activity across the northern Plains and Midwest, driven by an active subtropical jet and frequent Gulf moisture surges, has kept trader sentiment closely split between the 60–79 and 80–99 bins for August 2026. Climatologically, the month averages roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where the summertime jet stream creates favorable shear and instability, though counts can rise with landfalling tropical systems or drop under suppressed patterns. With half the month elapsed and preliminary reports showing typical late-summer frequency rather than the record-setting pace seen earlier in 2026, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing atmospheric conditions will produce a near-normal total or tilt modestly below it before September.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
9%
60-79
34%
80-99
34%
100–119
23%
120–139
2%
140-169
7%
170–199
2%
200+
9%
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$258 Обс.
2%
40–59
$152 Обс.
9%
60-79
$236 Обс.
34%
80-99
$244 Обс.
34%
100–119
$167 Обс.
23%
120–139
$52 Обс.
2%
140-169
$209 Обс.
7%
170–199
$157 Обс.
2%
200+
$245 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent elevated tornado activity across the northern Plains and Midwest, driven by an active subtropical jet and frequent Gulf moisture surges, has kept trader sentiment closely split between the 60–79 and 80–99 bins for August 2026. Climatologically, the month averages roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where the summertime jet stream creates favorable shear and instability, though counts can rise with landfalling tropical systems or drop under suppressed patterns. With half the month elapsed and preliminary reports showing typical late-summer frequency rather than the record-setting pace seen earlier in 2026, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing atmospheric conditions will produce a near-normal total or tilt modestly below it before September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,721Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent elevated tornado activity across the northern Plains and Midwest, driven by an active subtropical jet and frequent Gulf moisture surges, has kept trader sentiment closely split between the 60–79 and 80–99 bins for August 2026. Climatologically, the month averages roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where the summertime jet stream creates favorable shear and instability, though counts can rise with landfalling tropical systems or drop under suppressed patterns. With half the month elapsed and preliminary reports showing typical late-summer frequency rather than the record-setting pace seen earlier in 2026, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing atmospheric conditions will produce a near-normal total or tilt modestly below it before September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$1,721Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated tornado activity across the northern Plains and Midwest, driven by an active subtropical jet and frequent Gulf moisture surges, has kept trader sentiment closely split between the 60–79 and 80–99 bins for August 2026. Climatologically, the month averages roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where the summertime jet stream creates favorable shear and instability, though counts can rise with landfalling tropical systems or drop under suppressed patterns. With half the month elapsed and preliminary reports showing typical late-summer frequency rather than the record-setting pace seen earlier in 2026, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing atmospheric conditions will produce a near-normal total or tilt modestly below it before September.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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