Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a notable event across the Southeast and Plains on May 6-7 with multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes confirmed by the National Weather Service, have shaped trader views on the May 2026 U.S. tornado total. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1-3 outlooks continue to highlight moderate-to-enhanced risks through mid-month, driven by strong low-level moisture transport from the Gulf, sufficient wind shear from the mid-level jet, and surface heating that favors discrete supercells. With the 1991-2020 May climatology averaging 265 tornadoes and preliminary reports tracking near or slightly below that pace so far, market-implied odds cluster around the 200-289 range because further intensification depends on whether the jet stream remains favorably positioned or shifts northward, reducing overlap between instability and shear. Updated SPC convective outlooks and official confirmation counts expected by early June will provide the clearest near-term signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
200–229 47%
<200 42%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
47%
230–259
39%
260–289
40%
290–319
14%
320–349
7%
350–379
8%
380–410
9%
410+
8%
200–229 47%
<200 42%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$228 Обс.
34%
200–229
$0 Обс.
47%
230–259
$0 Обс.
39%
260–289
$0 Обс.
40%
290–319
$0 Обс.
14%
320–349
$10 Обс.
7%
350–379
$10 Обс.
8%
380–410
$0 Обс.
9%
410+
$0 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a notable event across the Southeast and Plains on May 6-7 with multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes confirmed by the National Weather Service, have shaped trader views on the May 2026 U.S. tornado total. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1-3 outlooks continue to highlight moderate-to-enhanced risks through mid-month, driven by strong low-level moisture transport from the Gulf, sufficient wind shear from the mid-level jet, and surface heating that favors discrete supercells. With the 1991-2020 May climatology averaging 265 tornadoes and preliminary reports tracking near or slightly below that pace so far, market-implied odds cluster around the 200-289 range because further intensification depends on whether the jet stream remains favorably positioned or shifts northward, reducing overlap between instability and shear. Updated SPC convective outlooks and official confirmation counts expected by early June will provide the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$248Дата завершення
Jun 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a notable event across the Southeast and Plains on May 6-7 with multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes confirmed by the National Weather Service, have shaped trader views on the May 2026 U.S. tornado total. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1-3 outlooks continue to highlight moderate-to-enhanced risks through mid-month, driven by strong low-level moisture transport from the Gulf, sufficient wind shear from the mid-level jet, and surface heating that favors discrete supercells. With the 1991-2020 May climatology averaging 265 tornadoes and preliminary reports tracking near or slightly below that pace so far, market-implied odds cluster around the 200-289 range because further intensification depends on whether the jet stream remains favorably positioned or shifts northward, reducing overlap between instability and shear. Updated SPC convective outlooks and official confirmation counts expected by early June will provide the clearest near-term signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$248Дата завершення
Jun 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a notable event across the Southeast and Plains on May 6-7 with multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes confirmed by the National Weather Service, have shaped trader views on the May 2026 U.S. tornado total. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1-3 outlooks continue to highlight moderate-to-enhanced risks through mid-month, driven by strong low-level moisture transport from the Gulf, sufficient wind shear from the mid-level jet, and surface heating that favors discrete supercells. With the 1991-2020 May climatology averaging 265 tornadoes and preliminary reports tracking near or slightly below that pace so far, market-implied odds cluster around the 200-289 range because further intensification depends on whether the jet stream remains favorably positioned or shifts northward, reducing overlap between instability and shear. Updated SPC convective outlooks and official confirmation counts expected by early June will provide the clearest near-term signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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