**Latest numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Istanbul's overnight minimum on September 17 likely falling in the 16–18 °C range under northerly flow and variable cloud cover.** This positions the implied probability near the middle temperature buckets while keeping the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher tails closely matched at 44.5 % each, reflecting residual spread across ensemble members. Key drivers include reduced radiative cooling from partial cloudiness, advection of cooler maritime air from the Black Sea, and light winds that limit mixing; these factors differentiate a potential 15–16 °C low from a 19–20 °C outcome more than seasonal climatology alone. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected overnight will narrow the uncertainty ahead of the market's resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
15°C or below 89%
25°C or higher 89%
16°C 40%
21°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
89%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C or higher
89%
15°C or below 89%
25°C or higher 89%
16°C 40%
21°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Обс.
89%
16°C
$0 Обс.
40%
17°C
$0 Обс.
22%
18°C
$0 Обс.
22%
19°C
$0 Обс.
22%
20°C
$0 Обс.
22%
21°C
$0 Обс.
40%
22°C
$0 Обс.
18%
23°C
$0 Обс.
18%
24°C
$0 Обс.
18%
25°C or higher
$0 Обс.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Istanbul's overnight minimum on September 17 likely falling in the 16–18 °C range under northerly flow and variable cloud cover.** This positions the implied probability near the middle temperature buckets while keeping the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher tails closely matched at 44.5 % each, reflecting residual spread across ensemble members. Key drivers include reduced radiative cooling from partial cloudiness, advection of cooler maritime air from the Black Sea, and light winds that limit mixing; these factors differentiate a potential 15–16 °C low from a 19–20 °C outcome more than seasonal climatology alone. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected overnight will narrow the uncertainty ahead of the market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Istanbul's overnight minimum on September 17 likely falling in the 16–18 °C range under northerly flow and variable cloud cover.** This positions the implied probability near the middle temperature buckets while keeping the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher tails closely matched at 44.5 % each, reflecting residual spread across ensemble members. Key drivers include reduced radiative cooling from partial cloudiness, advection of cooler maritime air from the Black Sea, and light winds that limit mixing; these factors differentiate a potential 15–16 °C low from a 19–20 °C outcome more than seasonal climatology alone. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected overnight will narrow the uncertainty ahead of the market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction runs from global models show Istanbul's overnight minimum on September 17 likely falling in the 16–18 °C range under northerly flow and variable cloud cover.** This positions the implied probability near the middle temperature buckets while keeping the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher tails closely matched at 44.5 % each, reflecting residual spread across ensemble members. Key drivers include reduced radiative cooling from partial cloudiness, advection of cooler maritime air from the Black Sea, and light winds that limit mixing; these factors differentiate a potential 15–16 °C low from a 19–20 °C outcome more than seasonal climatology alone. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected overnight will narrow the uncertainty ahead of the market's resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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