Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local forecasts points to a southerly flow and increasing cloud cover over Toronto on September 15, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum temperature near 22°C, close to the long-term average high of 22.1°C. Southerly winds advect milder air while widespread cloudiness and a 30-60% chance of showers or thunderstorms suppress peak values, with afternoon readings projected in the 21-23°C range. This uncertainty around exact clearing timing and precipitation timing explains the market's spread across mid-20s outcomes, though the 50% implied probability on 26°C or higher appears elevated relative to current guidance. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Toronto on September 15?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 15?
21°C 39%
22°C 38%
25°C 31%
24°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
4%
17°C
4%
18°C
9%
19°C
7%
20°C
11%
21°C
39%
22°C
38%
23°C
26%
24°C
29%
25°C
31%
26°C or higher
17%
21°C 39%
22°C 38%
25°C 31%
24°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Обс.
4%
17°C
$0 Обс.
4%
18°C
$0 Обс.
9%
19°C
$0 Обс.
7%
20°C
$0 Обс.
11%
21°C
$0 Обс.
39%
22°C
$0 Обс.
38%
23°C
$0 Обс.
26%
24°C
$6 Обс.
29%
25°C
$0 Обс.
31%
26°C or higher
$0 Обс.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local forecasts points to a southerly flow and increasing cloud cover over Toronto on September 15, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum temperature near 22°C, close to the long-term average high of 22.1°C. Southerly winds advect milder air while widespread cloudiness and a 30-60% chance of showers or thunderstorms suppress peak values, with afternoon readings projected in the 21-23°C range. This uncertainty around exact clearing timing and precipitation timing explains the market's spread across mid-20s outcomes, though the 50% implied probability on 26°C or higher appears elevated relative to current guidance. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$6Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local forecasts points to a southerly flow and increasing cloud cover over Toronto on September 15, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum temperature near 22°C, close to the long-term average high of 22.1°C. Southerly winds advect milder air while widespread cloudiness and a 30-60% chance of showers or thunderstorms suppress peak values, with afternoon readings projected in the 21-23°C range. This uncertainty around exact clearing timing and precipitation timing explains the market's spread across mid-20s outcomes, though the 50% implied probability on 26°C or higher appears elevated relative to current guidance. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and local forecasts points to a southerly flow and increasing cloud cover over Toronto on September 15, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum temperature near 22°C, close to the long-term average high of 22.1°C. Southerly winds advect milder air while widespread cloudiness and a 30-60% chance of showers or thunderstorms suppress peak values, with afternoon readings projected in the 21-23°C range. This uncertainty around exact clearing timing and precipitation timing explains the market's spread across mid-20s outcomes, though the 50% implied probability on 26°C or higher appears elevated relative to current guidance. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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