Recent cool air advection from a passing cold front and a strengthening marine layer are anchoring trader focus on overnight lows near 55–59°F for San Francisco on September 4. Persistent onshore flow off the Pacific keeps surface temperatures suppressed, while variable cloud cover limits radiational cooling and creates uncertainty between mid-50s readings at coastal stations versus slightly warmer urban pockets. Historical September 4 averages near 56°F provide context, yet the early-season frontal passage has held temperatures 5–10°F below normal. Model consensus favors a low around 55–59°F, but small shifts in wind direction or marine-layer depth could tip the minimum across the 58–59°F or lower bins that dominate current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
58-59°F 43%
66°F or higher 42%
60-61°F 41%
47°F or below 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
47°F or below
40%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
21%
52-53°F
38%
54-55°F
32%
56-57°F
22%
58-59°F
43%
60-61°F
41%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
24%
66°F or higher
42%
58-59°F 43%
66°F or higher 42%
60-61°F 41%
47°F or below 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Обс.
40%
48-49°F
$0 Обс.
18%
50-51°F
$0 Обс.
21%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
38%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
32%
56-57°F
$13 Обс.
22%
58-59°F
$0 Обс.
43%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
41%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
13%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
24%
66°F or higher
$0 Обс.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection from a passing cold front and a strengthening marine layer are anchoring trader focus on overnight lows near 55–59°F for San Francisco on September 4. Persistent onshore flow off the Pacific keeps surface temperatures suppressed, while variable cloud cover limits radiational cooling and creates uncertainty between mid-50s readings at coastal stations versus slightly warmer urban pockets. Historical September 4 averages near 56°F provide context, yet the early-season frontal passage has held temperatures 5–10°F below normal. Model consensus favors a low around 55–59°F, but small shifts in wind direction or marine-layer depth could tip the minimum across the 58–59°F or lower bins that dominate current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$13Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection from a passing cold front and a strengthening marine layer are anchoring trader focus on overnight lows near 55–59°F for San Francisco on September 4. Persistent onshore flow off the Pacific keeps surface temperatures suppressed, while variable cloud cover limits radiational cooling and creates uncertainty between mid-50s readings at coastal stations versus slightly warmer urban pockets. Historical September 4 averages near 56°F provide context, yet the early-season frontal passage has held temperatures 5–10°F below normal. Model consensus favors a low around 55–59°F, but small shifts in wind direction or marine-layer depth could tip the minimum across the 58–59°F or lower bins that dominate current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$13Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent cool air advection from a passing cold front and a strengthening marine layer are anchoring trader focus on overnight lows near 55–59°F for San Francisco on September 4. Persistent onshore flow off the Pacific keeps surface temperatures suppressed, while variable cloud cover limits radiational cooling and creates uncertainty between mid-50s readings at coastal stations versus slightly warmer urban pockets. Historical September 4 averages near 56°F provide context, yet the early-season frontal passage has held temperatures 5–10°F below normal. Model consensus favors a low around 55–59°F, but small shifts in wind direction or marine-layer depth could tip the minimum across the 58–59°F or lower bins that dominate current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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