**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited in Taipei, positioning 25–26°C as the most probable range for the September 4 low.** Forecasts from multiple models and agencies (including Central Weather Administration guidance and international ensembles) show an overcast, moist air mass with 80–100% cloud cover and repeated showers or thunderstorms through the night of September 3–4. This traps heat near the surface, preventing the temperature from falling as far as it would under clear skies. Dew points remain elevated near 25–26°C, further suppressing the diurnal range. Current model consensus points to overnight minima around 25–26°C, consistent with recent days’ observed lows near 26–27°C amid similar conditions. Historical September climatology for Taipei features average lows near 23–24°C, but the active monsoon-like pattern and lack of a cooler, drier air intrusion this week have kept readings several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model runs and real-time observations showing minimal cooling potential, which explains the strong market-implied odds clustered around 25–26°C. Any unexpected clearing or shift in steering flow could allow slightly lower readings, but near-term guidance shows little sign of that change before resolution.