Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
3% шанс
$20,096 Обс.
$20,096 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
3% шанс
$20,096 Обс.
$20,096 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,096Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$20,096Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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