Skip to main content
icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Політика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Політика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Обс.

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Обс.

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 Обс.

49%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,449 Обс.

20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 Обс.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Обс.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Обс.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Обс.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 Обс.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Обс.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Обс.

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 Обс.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Обс.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Обс.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Обс.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Обс.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Обс.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Обс.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Обс.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Обс.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Обс.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Обс.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Обс.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Обс.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Обс.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$367,449
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$367,449
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 24 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Starmer - UK PM» з 49%, далі «Petro - Colombia President» з 20%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» згенерував $367.4K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 27, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)», перегляньте 24 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — «Starmer - UK PM» з 49%. Наступний — «Petro - Colombia President» з 20%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.