Trader consensus assigns a low probability to Trump departing the presidency before 2027 due to the absence of major health events, legal actions, or political crises capable of triggering resignation, removal, or incapacity since the January 2025 inauguration. Strong party alignment in Congress has limited impeachment momentum, while official statements and public appearances indicate continued capacity to serve. Historical base rates for early exits remain low outside of death or extreme scandal, and no verifiable developments in the past 30 days have introduced new removal pathways. The 2026 midterm elections and any subsequent legislative shifts represent the next potential inflection points within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
6% шанс
$11,823,908 Обс.
$11,823,908 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
6% шанс
$11,823,908 Обс.
$11,823,908 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a low probability to Trump departing the presidency before 2027 due to the absence of major health events, legal actions, or political crises capable of triggering resignation, removal, or incapacity since the January 2025 inauguration. Strong party alignment in Congress has limited impeachment momentum, while official statements and public appearances indicate continued capacity to serve. Historical base rates for early exits remain low outside of death or extreme scandal, and no verifiable developments in the past 30 days have introduced new removal pathways. The 2026 midterm elections and any subsequent legislative shifts represent the next potential inflection points within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,823,908Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a low probability to Trump departing the presidency before 2027 due to the absence of major health events, legal actions, or political crises capable of triggering resignation, removal, or incapacity since the January 2025 inauguration. Strong party alignment in Congress has limited impeachment momentum, while official statements and public appearances indicate continued capacity to serve. Historical base rates for early exits remain low outside of death or extreme scandal, and no verifiable developments in the past 30 days have introduced new removal pathways. The 2026 midterm elections and any subsequent legislative shifts represent the next potential inflection points within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$11,823,908Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a low probability to Trump departing the presidency before 2027 due to the absence of major health events, legal actions, or political crises capable of triggering resignation, removal, or incapacity since the January 2025 inauguration. Strong party alignment in Congress has limited impeachment momentum, while official statements and public appearances indicate continued capacity to serve. Historical base rates for early exits remain low outside of death or extreme scandal, and no verifiable developments in the past 30 days have introduced new removal pathways. The 2026 midterm elections and any subsequent legislative shifts represent the next potential inflection points within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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