Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, including mediated talks in Geneva, Islamabad, and Oman plus high-level statements from President Trump and Iranian officials, has elevated trader expectations for a framework agreement. This would end active conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch a 30-to-60-day window for detailed nuclear negotiations covering enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, verification, and sanctions relief. As of mid-June 2026, both sides signal proximity to an initial memorandum while acknowledging that core nuclear terms require further work, producing the current 67.5% implied probability for a formal deal by July 31. Key unresolved issues such as enrichment duration and inspection mechanisms continue to inject uncertainty into the timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$338,616 Обс.
$338,616 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
$338,616 Обс.
$338,616 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, including mediated talks in Geneva, Islamabad, and Oman plus high-level statements from President Trump and Iranian officials, has elevated trader expectations for a framework agreement. This would end active conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch a 30-to-60-day window for detailed nuclear negotiations covering enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, verification, and sanctions relief. As of mid-June 2026, both sides signal proximity to an initial memorandum while acknowledging that core nuclear terms require further work, producing the current 67.5% implied probability for a formal deal by July 31. Key unresolved issues such as enrichment duration and inspection mechanisms continue to inject uncertainty into the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$338,616Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, including mediated talks in Geneva, Islamabad, and Oman plus high-level statements from President Trump and Iranian officials, has elevated trader expectations for a framework agreement. This would end active conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch a 30-to-60-day window for detailed nuclear negotiations covering enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, verification, and sanctions relief. As of mid-June 2026, both sides signal proximity to an initial memorandum while acknowledging that core nuclear terms require further work, producing the current 67.5% implied probability for a formal deal by July 31. Key unresolved issues such as enrichment duration and inspection mechanisms continue to inject uncertainty into the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$338,618Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, including mediated talks in Geneva, Islamabad, and Oman plus high-level statements from President Trump and Iranian officials, has elevated trader expectations for a framework agreement. This would end active conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch a 30-to-60-day window for detailed nuclear negotiations covering enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, verification, and sanctions relief. As of mid-June 2026, both sides signal proximity to an initial memorandum while acknowledging that core nuclear terms require further work, producing the current 67.5% implied probability for a formal deal by July 31. Key unresolved issues such as enrichment duration and inspection mechanisms continue to inject uncertainty into the timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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