**Recent diplomatic momentum, including high-level signals from the Trump administration and mediators, has lifted trader assessments of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by July 31 to a 62.5% implied probability on Yes.** Negotiations, mediated primarily by Oman and later Pakistan, advanced through multiple rounds in early 2026 after protests in Iran and a US-Israel military campaign that included strikes on nuclear-related sites followed by an April 7 ceasefire. Discussions have centered on limits to uranium enrichment, the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with reported progress on a framework that could suspend or curtail aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic measures. As of mid-June 2026, President Trump has publicly stated that a deal or memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed imminently, while Iranian officials have expressed cautious optimism tempered by remaining details on timelines and verification. IAEA statements highlight ongoing technical complexities and calls for renewed inspections, yet the pace of bilateral and third-party talks in the resolution window supports the current market pricing as a reflection of skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term prospects. Uncertainties around final terms, domestic Iranian positions, and any last-minute developments remain key variables.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$340,095 Обс.
$340,095 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
$340,095 Обс.
$340,095 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent diplomatic momentum, including high-level signals from the Trump administration and mediators, has lifted trader assessments of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by July 31 to a 62.5% implied probability on Yes.**
Negotiations, mediated primarily by Oman and later Pakistan, advanced through multiple rounds in early 2026 after protests in Iran and a US-Israel military campaign that included strikes on nuclear-related sites followed by an April 7 ceasefire. Discussions have centered on limits to uranium enrichment, the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with reported progress on a framework that could suspend or curtail aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic measures.
As of mid-June 2026, President Trump has publicly stated that a deal or memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed imminently, while Iranian officials have expressed cautious optimism tempered by remaining details on timelines and verification. IAEA statements highlight ongoing technical complexities and calls for renewed inspections, yet the pace of bilateral and third-party talks in the resolution window supports the current market pricing as a reflection of skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term prospects. Uncertainties around final terms, domestic Iranian positions, and any last-minute developments remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$340,095Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent diplomatic momentum, including high-level signals from the Trump administration and mediators, has lifted trader assessments of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by July 31 to a 62.5% implied probability on Yes.**
Negotiations, mediated primarily by Oman and later Pakistan, advanced through multiple rounds in early 2026 after protests in Iran and a US-Israel military campaign that included strikes on nuclear-related sites followed by an April 7 ceasefire. Discussions have centered on limits to uranium enrichment, the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with reported progress on a framework that could suspend or curtail aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic measures.
As of mid-June 2026, President Trump has publicly stated that a deal or memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed imminently, while Iranian officials have expressed cautious optimism tempered by remaining details on timelines and verification. IAEA statements highlight ongoing technical complexities and calls for renewed inspections, yet the pace of bilateral and third-party talks in the resolution window supports the current market pricing as a reflection of skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term prospects. Uncertainties around final terms, domestic Iranian positions, and any last-minute developments remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$340,151Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent diplomatic momentum, including high-level signals from the Trump administration and mediators, has lifted trader assessments of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by July 31 to a 62.5% implied probability on Yes.** Negotiations, mediated primarily by Oman and later Pakistan, advanced through multiple rounds in early 2026 after protests in Iran and a US-Israel military campaign that included strikes on nuclear-related sites followed by an April 7 ceasefire. Discussions have centered on limits to uranium enrichment, the disposition of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with reported progress on a framework that could suspend or curtail aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic measures. As of mid-June 2026, President Trump has publicly stated that a deal or memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed imminently, while Iranian officials have expressed cautious optimism tempered by remaining details on timelines and verification. IAEA statements highlight ongoing technical complexities and calls for renewed inspections, yet the pace of bilateral and third-party talks in the resolution window supports the current market pricing as a reflection of skin-in-the-game consensus on near-term prospects. Uncertainties around final terms, domestic Iranian positions, and any last-minute developments remain key variables.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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