Strong El Niño conditions are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification as confirmed by NOAA’s August 6 seasonal update. Only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed through mid-August with zero hurricanes to date, well below the 1991–2020 average. Official outlooks now project 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full June–November season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. Current National Hurricane Center observations show no active systems in the Atlantic, and the limited remaining window through August 31 reduces the chance of formation, rapid intensification, and U.S. landfall before the climatological September peak. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability traders assign to no hurricane landfall this month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
12% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification as confirmed by NOAA’s August 6 seasonal update. Only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed through mid-August with zero hurricanes to date, well below the 1991–2020 average. Official outlooks now project 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full June–November season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. Current National Hurricane Center observations show no active systems in the Atlantic, and the limited remaining window through August 31 reduces the chance of formation, rapid intensification, and U.S. landfall before the climatological September peak. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability traders assign to no hurricane landfall this month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$984Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification as confirmed by NOAA’s August 6 seasonal update. Only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed through mid-August with zero hurricanes to date, well below the 1991–2020 average. Official outlooks now project 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full June–November season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. Current National Hurricane Center observations show no active systems in the Atlantic, and the limited remaining window through August 31 reduces the chance of formation, rapid intensification, and U.S. landfall before the climatological September peak. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability traders assign to no hurricane landfall this month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Обсяг
$984Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification as confirmed by NOAA’s August 6 seasonal update. Only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed through mid-August with zero hurricanes to date, well below the 1991–2020 average. Official outlooks now project 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full June–November season, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. Current National Hurricane Center observations show no active systems in the Atlantic, and the limited remaining window through August 31 reduces the chance of formation, rapid intensification, and U.S. landfall before the climatological September peak. These factors underpin the 89% market-implied probability traders assign to no hurricane landfall this month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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