US allies such as Japan and South Korea have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to non-nuclear status and reliance on US extended deterrence, including through recent trilateral statements and bilateral assurances. No ally has launched or accelerated a weapons program capable of yielding a deployable nuclear device before the end of 2026, and NPT obligations plus technical and diplomatic barriers make breakout timelines far longer. NATO nuclear-sharing discussions and Franco-British coordination involve existing arsenals rather than new proliferation, while a July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement faces years of infrastructure and verification hurdles before any weapons path could materialize. Traders price the near-term absence of such developments at 94 percent for “No.”