Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 and subsequent unrest, Iran's Islamic Republic institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks, retain firm control over security and governance. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has intensified calls from abroad for a transitional secular government and international backing, including at recent U.S. and European forums, yet these efforts have produced no measurable shift in domestic power structures. Traders assign an overwhelming probability to no leadership role for Pahlavi by the end of 2026 because any transition would require broad internal consensus, military defections, or formal succession mechanisms that remain absent amid ongoing regime resilience and fragmented opposition dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Чи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Так
$1,175,049 Обс.
$1,175,049 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$1,175,049 Обс.
$1,175,049 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 and subsequent unrest, Iran's Islamic Republic institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks, retain firm control over security and governance. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has intensified calls from abroad for a transitional secular government and international backing, including at recent U.S. and European forums, yet these efforts have produced no measurable shift in domestic power structures. Traders assign an overwhelming probability to no leadership role for Pahlavi by the end of 2026 because any transition would require broad internal consensus, military defections, or formal succession mechanisms that remain absent amid ongoing regime resilience and fragmented opposition dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,175,049Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 and subsequent unrest, Iran's Islamic Republic institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks, retain firm control over security and governance. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has intensified calls from abroad for a transitional secular government and international backing, including at recent U.S. and European forums, yet these efforts have produced no measurable shift in domestic power structures. Traders assign an overwhelming probability to no leadership role for Pahlavi by the end of 2026 because any transition would require broad internal consensus, military defections, or formal succession mechanisms that remain absent amid ongoing regime resilience and fragmented opposition dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,175,049Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 and subsequent unrest, Iran's Islamic Republic institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks, retain firm control over security and governance. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has intensified calls from abroad for a transitional secular government and international backing, including at recent U.S. and European forums, yet these efforts have produced no measurable shift in domestic power structures. Traders assign an overwhelming probability to no leadership role for Pahlavi by the end of 2026 because any transition would require broad internal consensus, military defections, or formal succession mechanisms that remain absent amid ongoing regime resilience and fragmented opposition dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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