The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and rapid military reconstitution during the current US-Israel ceasefire underpin trader consensus at 99.2% against collapse by May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated internal security through exercises in Tehran Province and suppressed prior unrest, while imposing economic controls to mitigate shortages from the ongoing US naval blockade. These steps, alongside restored missile capabilities and external support for rebuilding, have prevented the defections or mass protests needed for rapid regime change. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen leadership fracture or sudden escalation triggering widespread domestic upheaval within the narrow two-week window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи впаде іранський режим до 31 травня?
Чи впаде іранський режим до 31 травня?
Так
$20,833,427 Обс.
$20,833,427 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Так
$20,833,427 Обс.
$20,833,427 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and rapid military reconstitution during the current US-Israel ceasefire underpin trader consensus at 99.2% against collapse by May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated internal security through exercises in Tehran Province and suppressed prior unrest, while imposing economic controls to mitigate shortages from the ongoing US naval blockade. These steps, alongside restored missile capabilities and external support for rebuilding, have prevented the defections or mass protests needed for rapid regime change. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen leadership fracture or sudden escalation triggering widespread domestic upheaval within the narrow two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,833,427Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and rapid military reconstitution during the current US-Israel ceasefire underpin trader consensus at 99.2% against collapse by May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated internal security through exercises in Tehran Province and suppressed prior unrest, while imposing economic controls to mitigate shortages from the ongoing US naval blockade. These steps, alongside restored missile capabilities and external support for rebuilding, have prevented the defections or mass protests needed for rapid regime change. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen leadership fracture or sudden escalation triggering widespread domestic upheaval within the narrow two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$20,833,518Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and rapid military reconstitution during the current US-Israel ceasefire underpin trader consensus at 99.2% against collapse by May 31. Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated internal security through exercises in Tehran Province and suppressed prior unrest, while imposing economic controls to mitigate shortages from the ongoing US naval blockade. These steps, alongside restored missile capabilities and external support for rebuilding, have prevented the defections or mass protests needed for rapid regime change. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen leadership fracture or sudden escalation triggering widespread domestic upheaval within the narrow two-week window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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