Recent NOAA updates show El Niño conditions already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1–2.2°C by mid-July 2026 and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling supporting further intensification. Multi-model ensembles assign an 81% chance of a very strong event during October–December, with 97% probability the pattern persists into early 2027—levels that align with informal “super El Niño” thresholds of sustained anomalies above +2.0°C. Current observations and historical analogs reinforce trader consensus around 92% yes odds. However, model spread remains possible if atmospheric feedbacks weaken or if relative Niño indices adjust for background warming, potentially keeping the peak below the strongest historical benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Apr 1, 2027
94% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA updates show El Niño conditions already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1–2.2°C by mid-July 2026 and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling supporting further intensification. Multi-model ensembles assign an 81% chance of a very strong event during October–December, with 97% probability the pattern persists into early 2027—levels that align with informal “super El Niño” thresholds of sustained anomalies above +2.0°C. Current observations and historical analogs reinforce trader consensus around 92% yes odds. However, model spread remains possible if atmospheric feedbacks weaken or if relative Niño indices adjust for background warming, potentially keeping the peak below the strongest historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,658Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA updates show El Niño conditions already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1–2.2°C by mid-July 2026 and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling supporting further intensification. Multi-model ensembles assign an 81% chance of a very strong event during October–December, with 97% probability the pattern persists into early 2027—levels that align with informal “super El Niño” thresholds of sustained anomalies above +2.0°C. Current observations and historical analogs reinforce trader consensus around 92% yes odds. However, model spread remains possible if atmospheric feedbacks weaken or if relative Niño indices adjust for background warming, potentially keeping the peak below the strongest historical benchmarks.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Обсяг
$4,658Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA updates show El Niño conditions already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1–2.2°C by mid-July 2026 and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling supporting further intensification. Multi-model ensembles assign an 81% chance of a very strong event during October–December, with 97% probability the pattern persists into early 2027—levels that align with informal “super El Niño” thresholds of sustained anomalies above +2.0°C. Current observations and historical analogs reinforce trader consensus around 92% yes odds. However, model spread remains possible if atmospheric feedbacks weaken or if relative Niño indices adjust for background warming, potentially keeping the peak below the strongest historical benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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