Jordan Bardella leads as the likely National Rally candidate in France’s 2027 presidential race because Marine Le Pen continues to face an active appeal of her embezzlement conviction and resulting five-year public-office ban, with a key court decision expected in July. Recent polling consistently places Bardella ahead in first-round voting intentions, reflecting his stronger appeal among moderate and younger voters and his lack of the family political baggage associated with Le Pen. In the past month the party has stepped up outreach to business groups, with both figures pledging regulatory relief, while strong municipal-election gains in March reinforced RN momentum. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward Bardella at 71 percent, leaving Le Pen’s prospects tied to a successful legal reversal.