Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin
CDU 32%
Grüne 22.8%
AfD 20.4%
Linke 20%
$2,632,311 KL.
$2,632,311 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$19,875 KL.
32%
Grüne
$55,229 KL.
23%
AfD
$2,196,508 KL.
20%
Linke
$16,640 KL.
20%
SPD
$293,000 KL.
6%
BSW
$28,797 KL.
<1%
FDP
$12,831 KL.
<1%
FW
$9,432 KL.
<1%
CDU 32%
Grüne 22.8%
AfD 20.4%
Linke 20%
$2,632,311 KL.
$2,632,311 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$19,875 KL.
32%
Grüne
$55,229 KL.
23%
AfD
$2,196,508 KL.
20%
Linke
$16,640 KL.
20%
SPD
$293,000 KL.
6%
BSW
$28,797 KL.
<1%
FDP
$12,831 KL.
<1%
FW
$9,432 KL.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 2026 state election reveals a fragmented electorate, with the CDU maintaining a modest lead in voting intentions while the Greens, Left Party, and AfD remain within a few points in most surveys. Criticism of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition's response to recent infrastructure challenges has limited any decisive momentum for the governing parties. This narrow spread among top contenders, combined with the five-percent threshold and coalition arithmetic required for government formation, keeps the contest for the largest share of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus highly competitive. Further separation could emerge from late-campaign developments, federal policy shifts, or turnout patterns among key voter groups ahead of election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
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Câu hỏi thường gặp
"Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 8 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "CDU" ở mức 32%, tiếp theo là "Grüne" ở mức 23%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 32¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 32% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" đã tạo $2.6 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Dec 2, 2025. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin," duyệt 8 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" là "CDU" ở mức 32%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 32% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "Grüne" ở mức 23%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $2.6 million được giao dịch trên "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 32¢ cho "CDU" trong thị trường "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 32% khả năng "CDU" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 32¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 68¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng Sep 20, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin" có cuộc thảo luận đang phát triển với 7 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang đặt cược vào đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tiểu bang Berlin." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
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