Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 7.7%
Romeu Zema 6.9%
$3,523,676 KL.
$3,523,676 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
15%
Renan Santos
8%
Romeu Zema
7%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 7.7%
Romeu Zema 6.9%
$3,523,676 KL.
$3,523,676 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$56,396 KL.
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$67,344 KL.
15%
Renan Santos
$995,940 KL.
8%
Romeu Zema
$256,381 KL.
7%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$72,830 KL.
3%
Fernando Haddad
$651,329 KL.
3%
Camilo Santana
$56,064 KL.
2%
Tereza Cristina
$2,853 KL.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289,157 KL.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 KL.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$111,040 KL.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$642,631 KL.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$29,825 KL.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$48,401 KL.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$2,260 KL.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$77,363 KL.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$40,500 KL.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,523,676Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$3,523,676Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls position Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the frontrunner for second place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May show Lula at 38-39 percent while Flávio registers 33-35 percent, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. Flávio’s candidacy, formally backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro in December 2025, has consolidated right-wing support following Jair’s legal disqualification. Traders appear to view this polling pattern and the absence of a stronger alternative challenger as the primary drivers behind the current market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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