Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil's October 4 presidential election first round due to Jair Bolsonaro's December endorsement consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party senator. Recent Quaest and Futura polls show Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round edge around 38-42 percent while Flávio trails closely at 33-37 percent, far ahead of fragmented challengers including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4-5 percent each. A leaked audio scandal tied to the Banco Master case in mid-May has introduced some uncertainty, yet trader consensus still prices Flávio at 62 percent for second place amid low single-digit shares for Renan Santos, Michelle Bolsonaro and others. The polarized field and limited crossover from centrist or left-leaning voters reinforce this positioning ahead of the runoff threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Renan Santos 8.8%
Romeu Zema 4.5%
$3,526,217 KL.
$3,526,217 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
Renan Santos
9%
Romeu Zema
4%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Renan Santos 8.8%
Romeu Zema 4.5%
$3,526,217 KL.
$3,526,217 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
Renan Santos
9%
Romeu Zema
4%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil's October 4 presidential election first round due to Jair Bolsonaro's December endorsement consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party senator. Recent Quaest and Futura polls show Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round edge around 38-42 percent while Flávio trails closely at 33-37 percent, far ahead of fragmented challengers including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 4-5 percent each. A leaked audio scandal tied to the Banco Master case in mid-May has introduced some uncertainty, yet trader consensus still prices Flávio at 62 percent for second place amid low single-digit shares for Renan Santos, Michelle Bolsonaro and others. The polarized field and limited crossover from centrist or left-leaning voters reinforce this positioning ahead of the runoff threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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