Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party candidate, while center-right figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado remain fragmented and trail in single digits. May surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Ideia show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–36 percent in simulated first-round scenarios, with the remaining field split among lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this established pattern and the limited near-term shifts from recent scrutiny over Flávio’s links to a funding controversy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.3%
$3,522,540 KL.
$3,522,540 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
15%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.3%
$3,522,540 KL.
$3,522,540 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
15%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing support behind his son and Liberal Party candidate, while center-right figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado remain fragmented and trail in single digits. May surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Ideia show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–36 percent in simulated first-round scenarios, with the remaining field split among lower-polling names. Trader pricing reflects this established pattern and the limited near-term shifts from recent scrutiny over Flávio’s links to a funding controversy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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