Recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 45 percent each, with first-round projections placing Lula near 38-39 percent and Flávio at 33-35 percent amid a fragmented field. This narrow gap supports trader consensus favoring Lula da Silva under a 5 percent first-round margin of victory, as the right-wing challenger consolidates conservative support following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement while economic pressures and approval ratings near 45 percent limit Lula's lead. A new film-funding scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro emerged in mid-May, potentially shifting momentum ahead of the October 4 vote, though the contest remains closely contested with limited separation in recent surveys.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.6%
$231,590 KL.
$231,590 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
9%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
8%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.6%
$231,590 KL.
$231,590 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 KL.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 KL.
9%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 KL.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 KL.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 KL.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 KL.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 KL.
25%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,600 KL.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,712 KL.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 KL.
1%
Other
$2,258 KL.
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 45 percent each, with first-round projections placing Lula near 38-39 percent and Flávio at 33-35 percent amid a fragmented field. This narrow gap supports trader consensus favoring Lula da Silva under a 5 percent first-round margin of victory, as the right-wing challenger consolidates conservative support following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement while economic pressures and approval ratings near 45 percent limit Lula's lead. A new film-funding scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro emerged in mid-May, potentially shifting momentum ahead of the October 4 vote, though the contest remains closely contested with limited separation in recent surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$231,590Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 45 percent each, with first-round projections placing Lula near 38-39 percent and Flávio at 33-35 percent amid a fragmented field. This narrow gap supports trader consensus favoring Lula da Silva under a 5 percent first-round margin of victory, as the right-wing challenger consolidates conservative support following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement while economic pressures and approval ratings near 45 percent limit Lula's lead. A new film-funding scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro emerged in mid-May, potentially shifting momentum ahead of the October 4 vote, though the contest remains closely contested with limited separation in recent surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$231,590Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoffs at around 45 percent each, with first-round projections placing Lula near 38-39 percent and Flávio at 33-35 percent amid a fragmented field. This narrow gap supports trader consensus favoring Lula da Silva under a 5 percent first-round margin of victory, as the right-wing challenger consolidates conservative support following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement while economic pressures and approval ratings near 45 percent limit Lula's lead. A new film-funding scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro emerged in mid-May, potentially shifting momentum ahead of the October 4 vote, though the contest remains closely contested with limited separation in recent surveys.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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