California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-30 House Election Winner
CA-30 House Election Winner
$22,831 KL.
$22,831 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$22,831 KL.
$22,831 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,811 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$10,021 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$22,831Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$22,831Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 30th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean rooted in its urban Los Angeles demographics and recent redistricting, which has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Incumbent Laura Friedman secured the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Scott Meyers and underscoring limited opposition strength. Race-rating organizations classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A commanding position of this magnitude could shift only in the event of an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an exceptional national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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