Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its heavily Latino population centers around Santa Ana and Anaheim in Orange County, combined with Correa's decade-long incumbency and consistent double-digit margins, anchors trader sentiment. Recent June primary results, where Correa advanced comfortably over Democratic challengers while Republican David Pan secured the top-two spot, reinforced this baseline without introducing new competitive dynamics. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late national political shifts, though the district's partisan composition sets a high bar for any Republican upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
$17,432 KL.
$17,432 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$17,432 KL.
$17,432 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,636 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$12,795 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its heavily Latino population centers around Santa Ana and Anaheim in Orange County, combined with Correa's decade-long incumbency and consistent double-digit margins, anchors trader sentiment. Recent June primary results, where Correa advanced comfortably over Democratic challengers while Republican David Pan secured the top-two spot, reinforced this baseline without introducing new competitive dynamics. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late national political shifts, though the district's partisan composition sets a high bar for any Republican upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,432Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its heavily Latino population centers around Santa Ana and Anaheim in Orange County, combined with Correa's decade-long incumbency and consistent double-digit margins, anchors trader sentiment. Recent June primary results, where Correa advanced comfortably over Democratic challengers while Republican David Pan secured the top-two spot, reinforced this baseline without introducing new competitive dynamics. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late national political shifts, though the district's partisan composition sets a high bar for any Republican upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$17,432Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its heavily Latino population centers around Santa Ana and Anaheim in Orange County, combined with Correa's decade-long incumbency and consistent double-digit margins, anchors trader sentiment. Recent June primary results, where Correa advanced comfortably over Democratic challengers while Republican David Pan secured the top-two spot, reinforced this baseline without introducing new competitive dynamics. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late national political shifts, though the district's partisan composition sets a high bar for any Republican upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp