South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and voting history continue to anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold in the at-large House district. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive margin over James Bialota, while Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed; subsequent polling has shown Jackley leading by 40 points or more. The state's limited swing potential, combined with the absence of major scandals or national headwinds since the primaries, supports the current market consensus reflected in Republican shares near 94 percent. A late-October development such as a candidate health issue, significant polling shift, or unexpected national event would be required to materially alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$28,768 KL.
$28,768 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$28,768 KL.
$28,768 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$21,079 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$7,688 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and voting history continue to anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold in the at-large House district. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive margin over James Bialota, while Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed; subsequent polling has shown Jackley leading by 40 points or more. The state's limited swing potential, combined with the absence of major scandals or national headwinds since the primaries, supports the current market consensus reflected in Republican shares near 94 percent. A late-October development such as a candidate health issue, significant polling shift, or unexpected national event would be required to materially alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,768Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and voting history continue to anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold in the at-large House district. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive margin over James Bialota, while Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed; subsequent polling has shown Jackley leading by 40 points or more. The state's limited swing potential, combined with the absence of major scandals or national headwinds since the primaries, supports the current market consensus reflected in Republican shares near 94 percent. A late-October development such as a candidate health issue, significant polling shift, or unexpected national event would be required to materially alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$28,768Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and voting history continue to anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold in the at-large House district. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive margin over James Bialota, while Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed; subsequent polling has shown Jackley leading by 40 points or more. The state's limited swing potential, combined with the absence of major scandals or national headwinds since the primaries, supports the current market consensus reflected in Republican shares near 94 percent. A late-October development such as a candidate health issue, significant polling shift, or unexpected national event would be required to materially alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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