Redistricting via California Proposition 50 created a D+2 partisan lean in the 48th Congressional District, transforming the historically Republican San Diego-area seat into a Democratic pickup target after incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement and endorsement of Jim Desmond. With the top-two primary looming on June 2—ballots mailing now—April SurveyUSA polling showed Desmond leading a fragmented field (25% to top Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar's 12%), yet traders price Democratic Party victory at 85% for the November 3 general, reflecting strong fundraising by Democrats like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and the district's 50.3% Kamala Harris presidential margin. Cook rates it Lean Democratic amid primary consolidation risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
14%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,754 KL.
85%
Republican Party
$4,139 KL.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via California Proposition 50 created a D+2 partisan lean in the 48th Congressional District, transforming the historically Republican San Diego-area seat into a Democratic pickup target after incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement and endorsement of Jim Desmond. With the top-two primary looming on June 2—ballots mailing now—April SurveyUSA polling showed Desmond leading a fragmented field (25% to top Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar's 12%), yet traders price Democratic Party victory at 85% for the November 3 general, reflecting strong fundraising by Democrats like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and the district's 50.3% Kamala Harris presidential margin. Cook rates it Lean Democratic amid primary consolidation risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,893Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting via California Proposition 50 created a D+2 partisan lean in the 48th Congressional District, transforming the historically Republican San Diego-area seat into a Democratic pickup target after incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement and endorsement of Jim Desmond. With the top-two primary looming on June 2—ballots mailing now—April SurveyUSA polling showed Desmond leading a fragmented field (25% to top Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar's 12%), yet traders price Democratic Party victory at 85% for the November 3 general, reflecting strong fundraising by Democrats like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and the district's 50.3% Kamala Harris presidential margin. Cook rates it Lean Democratic amid primary consolidation risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$9,893Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting via California Proposition 50 created a D+2 partisan lean in the 48th Congressional District, transforming the historically Republican San Diego-area seat into a Democratic pickup target after incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement and endorsement of Jim Desmond. With the top-two primary looming on June 2—ballots mailing now—April SurveyUSA polling showed Desmond leading a fragmented field (25% to top Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar's 12%), yet traders price Democratic Party victory at 85% for the November 3 general, reflecting strong fundraising by Democrats like Brandon Riker ($1.9M raised) and the district's 50.3% Kamala Harris presidential margin. Cook rates it Lean Democratic amid primary consolidation risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp