Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads the Galway West by-election market at 47 percent, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 31 percent, reflecting trader assessments of his strong local profile as a former Fianna Fáil councillor and appeal among independent voters in a constituency with a history of supporting non-party candidates. A May 7 Irish Times/TG4 poll placed Kyne narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 12 percent, highlighting a fragmented field that favors transfers for independents. With polling set for May 22 and no government party winning a by-election since 2014, market pricing emphasizes Thomas's momentum on cost-of-living and local issues over Kyne's established party organization.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGalway-West By-Election Winner?
Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,329 KL.
$47,329 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
31%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
9%
Orla Nugent
<1%
Helen Ogbu
4%
Denman Rooke
1%
Noel Thomas
47%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
10%
Mark Lohan
4%
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,329 KL.
$47,329 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
$20,246 KL.
1%
Seán Kyne
$4,700 KL.
31%
Niall Murphy
$1,834 KL.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,646 KL.
9%
Orla Nugent
$1,680 KL.
<1%
Helen Ogbu
$3,933 KL.
4%
Denman Rooke
$1,612 KL.
1%
Noel Thomas
$5,057 KL.
47%
Thomas Welby
$1,697 KL.
<1%
Mike Cubbard
$2,416 KL.
10%
Mark Lohan
$2,509 KL.
4%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads the Galway West by-election market at 47 percent, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 31 percent, reflecting trader assessments of his strong local profile as a former Fianna Fáil councillor and appeal among independent voters in a constituency with a history of supporting non-party candidates. A May 7 Irish Times/TG4 poll placed Kyne narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 12 percent, highlighting a fragmented field that favors transfers for independents. With polling set for May 22 and no government party winning a by-election since 2014, market pricing emphasizes Thomas's momentum on cost-of-living and local issues over Kyne's established party organization.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$47,329Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads the Galway West by-election market at 47 percent, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 31 percent, reflecting trader assessments of his strong local profile as a former Fianna Fáil councillor and appeal among independent voters in a constituency with a history of supporting non-party candidates. A May 7 Irish Times/TG4 poll placed Kyne narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 12 percent, highlighting a fragmented field that favors transfers for independents. With polling set for May 22 and no government party winning a by-election since 2014, market pricing emphasizes Thomas's momentum on cost-of-living and local issues over Kyne's established party organization.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Khối lượng
$47,329Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads the Galway West by-election market at 47 percent, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 31 percent, reflecting trader assessments of his strong local profile as a former Fianna Fáil councillor and appeal among independent voters in a constituency with a history of supporting non-party candidates. A May 7 Irish Times/TG4 poll placed Kyne narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 12 percent, highlighting a fragmented field that favors transfers for independents. With polling set for May 22 and no government party winning a by-election since 2014, market pricing emphasizes Thomas's momentum on cost-of-living and local issues over Kyne's established party organization.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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