Trader consensus positions Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland as the clear favorite for the Galway West by-election seat, driven by his established local profile as a Connemara councillor and strong second-preference flows under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A May 2026 Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas’s 16 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12 percent consolidating the left-leaning vote, yet traders assign Kyne only around 20 percent implied probability. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill Catherine Connolly’s vacancy, features cost-of-living and immigration as central issues, with no government candidate winning a by-election since 2014 further supporting the market’s assessment of an independent advantage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGalway-West By-Election Winner?
Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Noel Thomas 56%
Seán Kyne 30.0%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.7%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,345 KL.
$47,345 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
20%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
10%
Orla Nugent
<1%
Helen Ogbu
4%
Denman Rooke
1%
Noel Thomas
56%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
9%
Mark Lohan
4%
Noel Thomas 56%
Seán Kyne 30.0%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.7%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,345 KL.
$47,345 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
$20,246 KL.
1%
Seán Kyne
$4,701 KL.
20%
Niall Murphy
$1,834 KL.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,654 KL.
10%
Orla Nugent
$1,680 KL.
<1%
Helen Ogbu
$3,933 KL.
4%
Denman Rooke
$1,612 KL.
1%
Noel Thomas
$5,057 KL.
56%
Thomas Welby
$1,697 KL.
<1%
Mike Cubbard
$2,421 KL.
9%
Mark Lohan
$2,509 KL.
4%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus positions Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland as the clear favorite for the Galway West by-election seat, driven by his established local profile as a Connemara councillor and strong second-preference flows under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A May 2026 Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas’s 16 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12 percent consolidating the left-leaning vote, yet traders assign Kyne only around 20 percent implied probability. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill Catherine Connolly’s vacancy, features cost-of-living and immigration as central issues, with no government candidate winning a by-election since 2014 further supporting the market’s assessment of an independent advantage.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$47,345Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus positions Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland as the clear favorite for the Galway West by-election seat, driven by his established local profile as a Connemara councillor and strong second-preference flows under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A May 2026 Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas’s 16 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12 percent consolidating the left-leaning vote, yet traders assign Kyne only around 20 percent implied probability. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill Catherine Connolly’s vacancy, features cost-of-living and immigration as central issues, with no government candidate winning a by-election since 2014 further supporting the market’s assessment of an independent advantage.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Khối lượng
$47,345Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland as the clear favorite for the Galway West by-election seat, driven by his established local profile as a Connemara councillor and strong second-preference flows under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A May 2026 Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas’s 16 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12 percent consolidating the left-leaning vote, yet traders assign Kyne only around 20 percent implied probability. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill Catherine Connolly’s vacancy, features cost-of-living and immigration as central issues, with no government candidate winning a by-election since 2014 further supporting the market’s assessment of an independent advantage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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