Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, consistent with mid-May climatological averages reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This tight clustering around 21–22 °C explains why those two outcomes dominate trader positioning, as subtle differences in expected cloud cover, wind direction from the Black Sea, and urban heat-island effects could easily shift the official high by one degree. Models show limited disagreement on steering patterns, keeping probabilities for 20 °C or 23 °C and higher modest. With resolution based on the highest recorded value at the city’s primary weather stations tomorrow, the next model update cycle and any late-day observational trends will be the final inputs shaping the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 33%
22°C 31%
20°C 15%
23°C or higher 13.9%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
15%
21°C
33%
22°C
31%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 33%
22°C 31%
20°C 15%
23°C or higher 13.9%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$589 KL.
<1%
14°C
$844 KL.
<1%
15°C
$1,124 KL.
<1%
16°C
$810 KL.
<1%
17°C
$1,704 KL.
<1%
18°C
$1,212 KL.
<1%
19°C
$983 KL.
5%
20°C
$442 KL.
15%
21°C
$510 KL.
33%
22°C
$404 KL.
31%
23°C or higher
$1,375 KL.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, consistent with mid-May climatological averages reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This tight clustering around 21–22 °C explains why those two outcomes dominate trader positioning, as subtle differences in expected cloud cover, wind direction from the Black Sea, and urban heat-island effects could easily shift the official high by one degree. Models show limited disagreement on steering patterns, keeping probabilities for 20 °C or 23 °C and higher modest. With resolution based on the highest recorded value at the city’s primary weather stations tomorrow, the next model update cycle and any late-day observational trends will be the final inputs shaping the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,997Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, consistent with mid-May climatological averages reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This tight clustering around 21–22 °C explains why those two outcomes dominate trader positioning, as subtle differences in expected cloud cover, wind direction from the Black Sea, and urban heat-island effects could easily shift the official high by one degree. Models show limited disagreement on steering patterns, keeping probabilities for 20 °C or 23 °C and higher modest. With resolution based on the highest recorded value at the city’s primary weather stations tomorrow, the next model update cycle and any late-day observational trends will be the final inputs shaping the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$9,997Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, consistent with mid-May climatological averages reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This tight clustering around 21–22 °C explains why those two outcomes dominate trader positioning, as subtle differences in expected cloud cover, wind direction from the Black Sea, and urban heat-island effects could easily shift the official high by one degree. Models show limited disagreement on steering patterns, keeping probabilities for 20 °C or 23 °C and higher modest. With resolution based on the highest recorded value at the city’s primary weather stations tomorrow, the next model update cycle and any late-day observational trends will be the final inputs shaping the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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