Recent forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a daily maximum near 21–22°C in São Paulo on August 22, driven by a cooler airmass and increased cloud cover associated with a passing frontal boundary during Southern Hemisphere winter. Climatological normals for August place average highs around 23°C, yet current guidance from agencies highlights reduced insolation and southeasterly flow that may suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters on 21–22°C outcomes because ensemble spreads remain modest while resolution depends on precise official thermometer readings at the primary station; any late-model shift toward clearer skies could favor the 23°C bin, whereas stronger on-shore winds would reinforce lower probabilities.