Escalating Iranian attacks on tankers and threats to unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz have driven recent traffic sharply lower, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging around 10 per day over the past week and IMF PortWatch data showing even lower figures near 3-4 daily amid the ongoing crisis that began in late February 2026. This environment of severe restrictions, elevated war-risk premiums, and dark transits creates tight clustering in trader-implied probabilities around the 25-34 ship range for the week of October 12, as participants weigh fluctuating daily crossings against persistent security incidents reported through early October. Key swing factors include potential U.S. naval coordination effects and any short-term de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.