Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$195,014 KL.
$195,014 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$195,014 KL.
$195,014 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$195,014Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$195,014Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program have produced closely balanced trader sentiment around a 52.5% implied probability for an agreement ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva and Islamabad reveal persistent gaps, with the United States seeking a long-term moratorium or zero enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its right to enrichment and proposes shorter suspensions or monitored downblending of its highly enriched material. A fragile ceasefire following prior military exchanges adds urgency to the diplomacy. Further verifiable commitments on nuclear facilities or sanctions relief could improve odds of resolution, whereas renewed escalation or hardened positions would likely reinforce uncertainty in the current contested range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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