The active federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey in the Eastern District of North Carolina, returned April 28, 2026, on two counts alleging threats to the president via a 2025 Instagram post, remains the central driver of trader positioning. Oral arguments on September 15 before the Fourth Circuit showed skepticism toward the Justice Department’s effort to revive separate 2025 Virginia charges dismissed over an improper U.S. attorney appointment, while Comey’s pending motions to dismiss the North Carolina case on First Amendment, vindictive prosecution, and procedural grounds, plus his unopposed request to shift arraignment to January 2027 and trial to February, indicate extended litigation unlikely to produce dismissal by year-end. No nolle prosequi filings or administration signals of withdrawal have emerged, supporting the 59.5% implied probability on “No.”