**Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in the February 2026 snap election after dissolving the Lower House in late January, giving the ruling LDP-Japan Innovation Party coalition 352 seats in the 465-member chamber and a stable mandate through at least the next regular election cycle.** With the new term running into 2030 absent another dissolution, recent parliamentary activity has focused on passing divisive legislation such as a secondary capital bill during an extended July session, followed by adjournment, rather than any moves toward early polls. Takaichi’s initial high approval has moderated amid cost-of-living pressures, yet the coalition’s commanding lower-house position and lack of no-confidence threats or coalition instability reduce incentives for another dissolution before year-end. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because structural majorities and the post-election calendar make a second 2026 dissolution improbable without major unforeseen shocks.