The open seat in Louis-Hébert, following the departure of longtime CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault, has produced a tight PQ-CAQ contest consistent with trader pricing near 43% for Chloé Fauchon and 41.5% for Marc-Antoine Bernier. Provincial polling shows the PQ maintaining a narrow lead overall while the CAQ has narrowed the gap in recent surveys, particularly in the Capitale-Nationale region where this riding sits. Local vote projections from aggregators treat the riding as a toss-up, reflecting francophone voter splits and competition from the Conservatives. The October 5 election date and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional turnout patterns and any late shifts in party support, remain the primary variables that could separate the top contenders before ballots are cast.