The 2026 Quebec general election campaign, launched after the August 27 dissolution for the October 5 vote, has kept the Laurier-Dorion race tight among frontrunners in a Montreal riding with a diverse electorate. Incumbent Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow edge in trader pricing, closely trailed by Conservateur candidate Derek Lefebvre, while Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ's Kelly Lazo de la Vega, and CAQ's Emil Parfyonov remain competitive factors. Models from late August projected QS with a modest advantage based on 2022 results transposed to new boundaries, yet market consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, immigration and housing messaging, and provincial swings that could fragment support. Upcoming nomination deadlines on September 17 and early campaign events may shift probabilities if they clarify voter blocs or highlight local contrasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAndrés Fontecilla 44%
Kelly Lazo de la Vega 37%
Emil Parfyonov 27%
Randy Legault-Rankin 25%
Andrés Fontecilla
44%
Kelly Lazo de la Vega
37%
Emil Parfyonov
27%
Randy Legault-Rankin
25%
Derek Lefebvre
24%
Andrés Fontecilla 44%
Kelly Lazo de la Vega 37%
Emil Parfyonov 27%
Randy Legault-Rankin 25%
Andrés Fontecilla
44%
Kelly Lazo de la Vega
37%
Emil Parfyonov
27%
Randy Legault-Rankin
25%
Derek Lefebvre
24%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Nguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Nguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Quebec general election campaign, launched after the August 27 dissolution for the October 5 vote, has kept the Laurier-Dorion race tight among frontrunners in a Montreal riding with a diverse electorate. Incumbent Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow edge in trader pricing, closely trailed by Conservateur candidate Derek Lefebvre, while Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ's Kelly Lazo de la Vega, and CAQ's Emil Parfyonov remain competitive factors. Models from late August projected QS with a modest advantage based on 2022 results transposed to new boundaries, yet market consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, immigration and housing messaging, and provincial swings that could fragment support. Upcoming nomination deadlines on September 17 and early campaign events may shift probabilities if they clarify voter blocs or highlight local contrasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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