The open seat in Vanier-Les Rivières, following incumbent Mario Asselin’s May 2026 departure for personal and health reasons, has produced a tight four-way contest among the Coalition avenir Québec’s Françoise Faverjon-Fortin, the Parti québécois’ Stéphanie Martin, the Parti conservateur du Québec’s Patrick Paquet, and the Parti libéral du Québec’s Charles Hudon. Late-August 2026 projections from aggregators place the top three parties within a few points of one another in the low-to-mid 20s, reflecting the riding’s history of swings between CAQ and other options plus broader provincial volatility ahead of the October 5 vote. Nomination filings remain open until September 17, leaving room for additional entries or withdrawals that could further fragment support. Late-campaign polling shifts, candidate debates, and differential turnout in Quebec City’s suburban and urban precincts are the factors most likely to widen the current narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.