**Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon's president by parliament on January 9, 2025, ending a more than two-year vacancy, and assumed a standard six-year term.** This timeline places the end of his mandate well beyond December 31, 2026, anchoring trader consensus that removal is highly improbable in the near term. Recent developments reinforce stability: Aoun has pursued active diplomacy, including a July 2026 White House meeting with President Trump focused on Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon, state sovereignty, and post-conflict reconstruction under frameworks like UN Resolution 1701. No major parliamentary challenges, health events, or constitutional crises have emerged to threaten his position since taking office, and Lebanon's fragmented political system has shown limited appetite for another early vacancy. While late-breaking scandals, sudden health developments, or unforeseen escalations in regional tensions could theoretically shift outcomes, these remain low-probability events given the current institutional backing and Aoun's broad domestic and international support. Traders price the "No" outcome at 96% to reflect this structural and political reality.