A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
<1.10ºC 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
44%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
<1.10ºC 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$222 KL.
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
$102 KL.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$209 KL.
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
$252 KL.
44%
1.25–1.29ºC
$176 KL.
9%
>1.29ºC
$173 KL.
22%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,135Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,135Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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