Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
<5 100.0%
5-9 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$22,293 KL.
$22,293 KL.
May 15, 2026
<5
Yes
5-9
No
10-14
No
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50-54
No
55-59
No
60+
No
<5 100.0%
5-9 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$22,293 KL.
$22,293 KL.
May 15, 2026
<5
$3,321 KL.
Yes
5-9
$2,066 KL.
No
10-14
$3,557 KL.
No
15-19
$6,156 KL.
No
20-24
$1,117 KL.
No
25-29
$412 KL.
No
30-34
$609 KL.
No
35-39
$670 KL.
No
40-44
$685 KL.
No
45-49
$1,036 KL.
No
50-54
$1,179 KL.
No
55-59
$793 KL.
No
60+
$691 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Khối lượng
$22,293Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$22,293Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Trader consensus prices fewer than five posts by Ayatollah Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) at virtually 100% probability for May 8–15, 2026, reflecting zero activity in the period through May 14 amid the account's sharp decline following his martyrdom in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. The bio now describes him as the "martyred Leader," with posts limited to sporadic reposts of archival statements—latest on May 4–5 quoting past remarks on US weakness and Zionist normalization—averaging under one weekly as successor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei uses a separate account for new messaging. This established low-volume pattern during institutional transition drives the lopsided odds, with resolution at May 15, 12:00 PM ET; a pre-deadline flurry of historical reposts remains the sole realistic challenge, though mourning protocols make it improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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