Moonshot AI’s rapid release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026, followed by open weights on July 27, has accelerated expectations for Kimi K4. The company is already seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a substantially larger next-generation model, with unconfirmed reports pointing to a 5-6 trillion parameter MoE architecture. This follows Moonshot’s pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates throughout 2025-2026 and reflects competitive pressure from U.S. labs alongside strong domestic demand for K3. While development work on K4 has reportedly begun, hardware constraints, regulatory export controls on advanced chips, and typical multi-month training cycles introduce meaningful uncertainty around a 2026 release. Traders are watching for official announcements, benchmark leaks, or supply-chain signals that could shift implied probabilities on timing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$13,398 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
14%
$13,398 KL.
October 31, 2026
$8,025 KL.
4%
December 31, 2026
$5,373 KL.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026, followed by open weights on July 27, has accelerated expectations for Kimi K4. The company is already seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a substantially larger next-generation model, with unconfirmed reports pointing to a 5-6 trillion parameter MoE architecture. This follows Moonshot’s pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates throughout 2025-2026 and reflects competitive pressure from U.S. labs alongside strong domestic demand for K3. While development work on K4 has reportedly begun, hardware constraints, regulatory export controls on advanced chips, and typical multi-month training cycles introduce meaningful uncertainty around a 2026 release. Traders are watching for official announcements, benchmark leaks, or supply-chain signals that could shift implied probabilities on timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,398Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026, followed by open weights on July 27, has accelerated expectations for Kimi K4. The company is already seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a substantially larger next-generation model, with unconfirmed reports pointing to a 5-6 trillion parameter MoE architecture. This follows Moonshot’s pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates throughout 2025-2026 and reflects competitive pressure from U.S. labs alongside strong domestic demand for K3. While development work on K4 has reportedly begun, hardware constraints, regulatory export controls on advanced chips, and typical multi-month training cycles introduce meaningful uncertainty around a 2026 release. Traders are watching for official announcements, benchmark leaks, or supply-chain signals that could shift implied probabilities on timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$13,398Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026, followed by open weights on July 27, has accelerated expectations for Kimi K4. The company is already seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a substantially larger next-generation model, with unconfirmed reports pointing to a 5-6 trillion parameter MoE architecture. This follows Moonshot’s pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates throughout 2025-2026 and reflects competitive pressure from U.S. labs alongside strong domestic demand for K3. While development work on K4 has reportedly begun, hardware constraints, regulatory export controls on advanced chips, and typical multi-month training cycles introduce meaningful uncertainty around a 2026 release. Traders are watching for official announcements, benchmark leaks, or supply-chain signals that could shift implied probabilities on timing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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