**Trader sentiment for Manila's lowest temperature on August 26 reflects uncertainty in overnight minimums under persistent southwest monsoon influence, with leading outcomes clustered around 25–27°C.** High humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms—driven by the active monsoon and distant tropical cyclone effects—limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated compared to drier conditions. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate nighttime lows near 26–27°C (roughly 79–81°F), consistent with the wet-season climatology where dew points remain high and winds from the southwest maintain mixing. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on intensification of rains, which would further suppress cooling, while any clearing could allow dips toward 25°C or below. Resolution hinges on official station observations, likely at PAGASA's Science Garden site, amid typical August variability of ±1–2°C around the 26–27°C range.